MIAMI -- Hurricane Milton is pushing high winds, flash flooding, and tornadoes ahead of its expected landfall tonight.

Here is the new advisory from the NHC.

BULLETIN

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS

EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W

ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA

ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto

Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast

north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and

for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita

Beach have been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been

discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,

including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the

St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,

including Tampa Bay

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward

to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the

Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to

Flamingo

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina

* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the

Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located

near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving

toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the

east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward

the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton

will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this

evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula

overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher

gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when

it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it

will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida

through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western

Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles

(405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM)

recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a

wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the

Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained

wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100

km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane

Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft

Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft

Tampa Bay...6-9 ft

Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft

Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft

Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm

Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals

up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of

the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the

risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,

along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are

possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of

Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach

the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions

are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia

and South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the

northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong

tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of

central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect

much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.

coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

Brian Fink